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About Finfluencers Bet

The Spark

Every day, I listen to financial market commentary, hearing confident predictions about stocks, sectors, and timing. But often, these confident calls didn't match reality. This observation, combined with personal experience, sparked the idea for Finfluencers Bet.

I've also seen how powerful sentiment – including my own gut feelings – can be during market volatility. Even knowing better intellectually, I've felt that intense urge to sell during downturns, sometimes acting on it right before a sharp rebound. This painful experience as a personal "contra indicator" highlighted a key question: Can tracking the collective "bets" and prevailing sentiment expressed by influential voices actually provide valuable market signals, perhaps even reliable contrarian ones?

The Problem

Financial influencers often make bold predictions with conviction, swaying audience sentiment, but face little accountability for their track record. When you hear a confident recommendation:

  • How do you know their actual success rate?
  • Are they consistent, or do opinions shift with market winds?
  • Could their strong conviction (or the crowd's reaction) actually be a signal itself, maybe even a contrarian one?

My Approach

Finfluencers Bet is the platform I'm building to systematically collect and analyze public financial predictions. Beyond just tracking accuracy, the approach involves looking for patterns:

  • Specific predictions (stocks, sectors, market moves) and their outcomes.
  • Time frames involved.
  • Consistency and potential biases.
  • Identifying commentators who might serve as reliable indicators – or potent contrarian signals, reflecting potentially overextended market sentiment.

The Goal

My goal is to help you navigate the noisy world of financial commentary with data. Specifically, I aim to:

  1. Provide objective performance data on prominent commentators.
  2. Highlight genuinely insightful voices.
  3. Identify potentially reliable contrarian indicators derived from collective sentiment or specific commentators' patterns.
  4. Bring transparency to the finfluencer ecosystem.
  5. Help you make more informed decisions about whose advice (or sentiment) to consider.

I believe analysis should focus on results and patterns, not just charisma. By tracking performance and sentiment signals over time, I aim to change how financial commentary is consumed and evaluated.